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专家解题:2013年职称英语考试理工类A级阅读理解历年真题及答案解析2

来源:博大考神职称考试网 发布时间:2014-08-28
  考题类型:阅读理解
  Forecasting Methods
  There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
  The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
  The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, suing the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
  The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. if the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
  The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today's forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
  36. Which of the following is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method?
  A. Necessary amount of information.
  B. Creativity of the forecaster.
  C. Degree of difficulty involved in forecasting.
  D. Practical knowledge of the forecaster.
  专家解析:
  第一步:划出题干中的信息词。本题目信息词有:NOT mentioned,choosing,forecasting method。
  第二步:根据顺序出题原则,将信息词回归原文。本题回归至原文的第一段的后半部分,即:The method forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
  第三步:对比原文及题目信息,确定答案。题干问的是:选择(choosing)forecasting method时下面那个没有涉及到(NOT mentioned)?原文说的是选择(chooses)的基础(depends upon)是the experience (经验)of the forecaster, the amount of information(信息) available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty(困难) that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy(精确度) or confidence (自信)needed in the forecast.。对比四个选项后,发现选项B的creativity(创新)没有涉及到,所以本题的答案为选项B。
  37. The persistence method fails to work well when
  A. it is rainy.
  B. it is sunny.
  C. weather conditions stay stable.
  D. weather conditions change greatly.
  专家解析:
  第一步:划出题干中的信息词。本题目信息词有:persistence method,fails,when。
  第二步:将信息词回归原文。本题回归至原文的第二段后半部分,即:However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
  第三步:对比原文及题目信息,确定答案。题干问的是:在什么时候(when)persistence method不能(fail)运转正常(work well)。原文说的是如果weather conditions显著改变(change significantly),persistence method就要出问题(breaks down)。其中,选项D的weather conditions大幅度改变(change greatly),表达的就是这个意思,所以本题的答案为选项D。
  38. The trends method works well when
  A. weather features are defined well enough.
  B. weather features are constant for a long period of time.
  C. predictions on precipitation are accurate.
  D. the speed and direction of movement are predictable.
  专家解析:
  第一步:划出题干中的信息词。本题目信息词有:trends method,works well,when。
  第二步:将信息词回归原文。本题回归至原文的第三段后半部分,即:The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
  第三步:对比原文及题目信息,确定答案。题干问的是:什么时候(when)trends method运转正常(works well)。原文说的是trends method当(when)systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time时运转正常(works well)。也就是说答案就是systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time,其中systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction指的是系统继续保持同一速度和方向运行,也就是选项A说的天气特征稳定(weather features are constant),所以本题的答案为选项A。
  39. The analog method should not be used in making a weather forecast when
  A. the analog looks complicated.
  B. the analog is more than 10 years old.
  C. the current weather scenario is different from the analog.
  D. the current weather scenario is exactly the same as the analog.
  专家解析:
  第一步:划出题干中的信息词。本题目信息词有:analog method,not be used,making a weather forecast,when。
  第二步:将信息词回归原文。本题回归至原文的第五段后半部分,即:The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
  第三步:对比原文及题目信息,确定答案。题干问的是:什么时候(when)不能使用(not be used)analog method来making a weather forecast。原文说的是analog method使用起来很困难(difficult)因为(because)几乎不可能(impossible)找到(找到)predict analog……现在的(current time)和analog之间的很小差别(small difference)都会导致(lead to)完全不同的结果(different results)。也就是C选项说的现在的(current) weather scenario和analog之间的不同(different),所以本题的答案为选项C。
  40. Historical weather data are necessary in
  A. the persistence method and the trends method
  B. the trends method and the climatology method
  C. the climatology method and the analog method
  D. the persistence method and the analog method
  专家解析:
  第一步:划出题干中的信息词。本题目信息词有:Historical weather data,necessary。
  第二步:信息词无法进行回归。题干问的是历史天气数据(Historical weather data)在……里是必要的(necessary)。根据前面几道题的理解,analog method里面需要用到过去和现在的weather data,所以排除掉A和B选项。另外第四段还没有出过题,所以,我们首先看第四段的climatology method是否需要weather data。在第四段的第二句话中:This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast,讲到了这种方法涉及(involves)到了前面几年的(over many years)天气数据(weather statistics)。也就是历史天气数据在analog method和climatology method里面都是必要的。所以本题的答案为选项C。
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